A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
