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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But the current race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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